The Paradox of Prediction, by Joakim Book
Notes On Liberty —

Joakim Book takes an honest look at the art (or self-aggrandizing) of those who tout their abilities, and often their success, at forecasting market events. For Book, such claims represent one as either “consistently bullish”, or an equally consistent “doomsday sayer”. And for some, they simply got “lucky” on occasion. In all cases one thing is true: sooner or later even a blind squirrel finds a nut.

This is a great time to give his thoughts a scan and check your own impulses to follow unqualified forecasting that meets your less-reliable hopes and/or expectations. Read the short, but provocative article here.